日本央行在7月30日公布的利率决议中，是否将政策利率维持在1.00%？

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

Forecasters and market probability models overwhelmingly expect the Bank of Japan to hold the policy interest rate at 1.00% at its July 30-31, 2026, meeting. The BOJ raised the rate to 1.00% in June and is expected to assess its effects before any subsequent hikes, meaning a "hold" maintains the 1.00% rate.

BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.0% in June 2026. July 30-31 meeting previews from Reuters, BOJ schedule, and economist consensus unanimously expect a hold to assess impact while upgrading growth forecasts (AI demand) and noting inflation risks. No indication of immediate further tightening. Strongest evidence is BOJ meeting calendar, Reuters sourcing of insiders, and market pricing (~4-6% implied for hike). Main uncertainty is surprise wholesale inflation or yen movement. Much hotter data could prompt hike but BOJ gradualism and recent statements make hold baseline.

The BOJ's July 2026 meeting runs July 30-31 with the statement expected around the end of that window (July 30 UTC). All available evidence points to a hold at 1.00%: the BOJ just hiked 25bp to a 31-year-high 1.0% at its June 15-16 meeting (its first move since December 2025), and consecutive-meeting hikes are not this BOJ's pattern under Ueda's gradual, data-dependent guidance; Reuters reported July 24, citing three sources familiar with BOJ thinking, that the bank is likely to keep rates steady at 1% while revising up its growth forecast; and Japan's core CPI ran at 1.6% in June, below target for a fifth straight month. Market pricing implies roughly 97-99% odds of no change. Residual risk: yen weakness near 40-year lows and US political pressure could force a surprise hike, and hawkish board members (Takata, Tamura, Nakagawa) have dissented for hikes before.

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

The BOJ raised the policy rate to 1.00% only in June. Reuters, NHK and other reporting consistently expect no back-to-back increase while the Bank assesses that move, making maintenance at 1.00% the clear base case. A surprise hike remains possible if inflation and yen concerns dominate.

The BoJ’s policy rate is not scheduled to change at this July meeting according to market‑priced expectations. Japanese government bond yields and JPY‑linked derivatives show the 10‑year JGB yield relatively flat and the short‑end anchored at around the current 1.00% policy‑rate level, with no significant option‑skew toward a hike. Equity‑linked volatility in Japan remains modest, and the yen has not exhibited the sharp moves typical of an imminent tightening cycle. BoJ‑related commentary from recent minutes and speeches also emphasizes caution on further tightening after the last rate move, implying that maintaining 1.00% is the more probable outcome. Thus, the finance data favor YES (maintenance at 1.00%) over NO, but with enough uncertainty that the probability is not extreme.

该轮次没有提交预测理由。

This asks whether the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 1.00% at its July 30, 2026 meeting. The BoJ has been normalizing policy very gradually, and if the rate was last set at 1.00%, a hold at the July meeting is the base case. The BoJ tends to move slowly and may prefer to await more data before raising further. However, if inflation and wage data are strong, another hike is possible. Assigned 0.55 YES (maintain at 1.00%). Main uncertainty: strong inflation or yen weakness could prompt the BoJ to hike again.